-Gabriel Dorris-

With the Canes’ 2024 season having ended in a heartbreaking loss to the New York Rangers, we have officially entered the offseason, and with that, like any other year, comes trades, signings, and best of all, rumors about trades and signings that never happen (looking at you, Tarasenko).

In the early days of this year’s offseason, Martin Necas has attracted far more trade interest than any other player on the Canes and arguably in the league, with him expressing a want to play on the first line and PP1 and his dad outright commenting that he wants to leave the organization. The Canes still hold the signing rights to Necas, an RFA, meaning that there’s no guarantee he leaves, but if he does, we know a few things about what the Canes are looking for.

• The Canes see Necas as a young, budding star, and they want any potential return to match that perception.
• The Canes still see themselves as a contending team, and they want any return to help them win now- essentially, the Canes won’t make any trade that makes them worse today.
• Positionally, though, the Canes don’t seem to have a clear preference. They’re looking for any hockey trade that makes the team better.
• A high pick, such as the Devils 10th overall or Canadiens 5th overall could still be a major piece in a deal if the Canes see a prospect they think has superstar potential.
• Circling back on a potential return, insider Elliotte Friedman noted that a first rounder and decent prospect is not enough for Necas.
• The fact that teams are still interested despite this indicates that around the league, teams also see Necas as being very high in value.
• The idea of a three-way deal has also been brought up.
• Seeing how high these demands are, it’s worth again noting that Necas is an RFA and the Canes, though in a tenuous position cap-wise, are not “strapped” and re-signing Necas on a bridge deal through arbitration will always be an option if they don’t see an attractive trade proposal.
• Adding to this, any offer-sheet will probably be matched without much hesitation.
• The Canes may also try to lump Kotkaniemi in a Necas trade, as certain teams such as the Canucks and Flames reportedly still see value in KK and the Canes could use that $5m in cap.
• No, the Canes are not trading Necas for Markstrom and Mangiapane.

Now, to see what a potential return for Necas may look like, we can look at two recent trades of a similar player in a similar situation.

Alex Debrincat

Debrincat has actually been traded twice in the last three years. Once from the Chicago Blackhawks to the Ottawa Senators for a 7th overall pick, 39th overall pick, and fourth rounder, and then his RFA rights to the Detroit Red Wings for Domanik Kubalik, Donovan Sebrango, a conditional 2024 1st (which wound up being 25th overall) and a 2024 4th.

Looking at the first trade, the 24-year-old Debrincat was coming off a season very similar to Necas’ 24-year-old season, having put up 78 points in 82 games (vs Necas’ 71 in 82). The Blackhawks, attempting a rebuild, were looking for futures, and futures are what they got, with two top-40 picks including a top 10 pick. Value wise, this is likely similar to what Necas would return- either a player of Debrincat’s level, or a very high pick (around 7th) and a player worth a high second and a fourth (think somewhere between Alex Wennberg and Vladimir Tarasenko).

Looking at the second trade, Debrincat was coming off a bit of a down year scoring just 36 points at even strength despite spending most of the season playing with Claude Giroux and Tim Stutzle (for comparison, Necas scored 40 spending significant portions of his season with elite players such as Jordan Martinook and Jack Drury). Of course, Debrincat was far more productive on the powerplay, but he did get PP1 minutes which Necas did not; this is ironically part of why Necas wants to be traded.

Looking at the return, Ottawa recieved Dominik Kubalik, who was at the time a 27-year-old coming off a 20 goal, 25 assist season, Donovan Sebrango, who was at the time a 21-year-old defense prospect coming off a season where he scored 7 points in 39 AHL games, a first rounder expected to fall around 20th at the time, and a fourth rounder.

This return is basically the opposite of what the Canes will be looking for. A mediocre winger and C-grade prospect with two picks does not embody a team trying to win now, but a team struggling to pick between attempting a rebuild and sticking with the core (which is exactly what the Senators are/were). Value wise, this is probably somewhat lower than what the Canes will be looking for, considering the disparity in linemate quality and PP usage in each player’s season, along with a belief that the Canes system may be “limiting” Necas. It’s also worth noting that Debrincat had expressed a clear preference to go to the Wings.

So what could a potential trade look like?

Using the information above, a Necas trade return would likely follow one of two patterns-

A. A top 10 pick in the 2024 NHL draft and a decent player (see: 40 or so point forward or strong bottom-pairing defenseman)

B. A player similar in value to Necas in something close to a one-for-one

The Canes could try to make a run at a true superstar with Necas as a piece, like they nearly did for Elias Pettersson earlier this season, but for that to happen said superstar has to become available, which in my mind makes this less likely.

What I don’t expect is a trade involving a high but not immediately impactful pick (think around 20th overall) and a hodgepodge of mediocre players and prospects. The Canes will be looking for serious talent in whatever deal happens.

Potential option A trades:

Necas to the Montreal Canadiens for the Canadiens 2024 5th overall pick and the rights to RFA Arber Xhekaj

Necas and the Canes 2024 3rd round pick to the New Jersey Devils for the Devils 2024 10th overall pick and the rights to RFA Dawson Mercer

Potential option B trades:

Necas (and maybe Kotkaniemi) to the Vancouver Canucks for RFA Filip Hronek and the Vancouver Canucks 2024 3rd round pick

Necas to the Boston Bruins for Linus Ullmark and the Bruins 2024 4th round pick

Necas to the Columbus Blue Jackets for Patrik Laine ($1.7m retained)

What if we re-sign him?

Sure, that works too.