-Gabriel Dorris-

I’m prefacing this by saying I am beyond confident that the Canes aren’t going to trade for Connor McDavid. In fact, I don’t see any team in the NHL doing it. The price he’d demand is far too high, and I don’t think Edmonton would be willing to accept a proposal of one high tier NHL-er and a bunch of futures. The team was supposed to be a top cup contender this season, and even with how bad the 3-9-1 start has been for the Oilers, trading the best player in the NHL after 14 bad games seems like an overreaction.

Still, hypotheticals are fun, so here’s three looks at what a McDavid to Carolina trade could look like.

Sebastian Aho, Brett Pesce, Ryan Suzuki, 2024 1st, 2025 1st, and 2025 2nd for Connor McDavid and Cody Ceci

Points, GP, and cap in 2022-23: Carolina: 97 points, 157 GP, and $12,485,250 in cap Edmonton 168 points, 162 GP, and $15,750,000 in cap

In this trade, Carolina obviously gets the advantage in points, although most of that is due to McDavid having an absurd 153 of those last year. He probably wouldn’t get that high in Carolina with a more defensively focused system. I’d expect somewhere between 120-140 points for him a year, which is still really good. Where Edmonton wins in this trade is the future. Aho’s signed for the next nine years, and although Pesce is a UFA next year, he’s a rock-solid player who could be huge for Edmonton’s defense in the future if extended.

McDavid would almost certainly demand a league maximum contract from Carolina when his current deal expires in 3 years, and Ceci would also require a significant raise. Edmonton would also receive Ryan Suzuki, who has shown promise but stuck out of the Hurricanes lineup due to injuries and an overload in depth, but an Oilers team with a weak 3rd and 4th center could give him a chance. Three relatively high draft picks would be another bonus for the Oils.

Still, this trade is unrealistic for a few reasons. First, Aho right now is probably even more unlikely than McDavid to get traded. He’s the face of the Hurricanes and just signed a massive 8-year extension with the team. Aho also has a no-movement clause that he would have to waive for this trade, and Pesce also has a modified NMC. I’m also not sure either team would be happy with this deal. The Canes would face a nerf to their defense, as Pesce is far better than Ceci, and Aho is more defensively responsible than McDavid. The Oilers would probably not see this trade as fair value, especially since the Canes picks will likely be very late for the next few years, which makes me feel that even if McDavid was on the block, this trade would still have no chance of happening.

Seth Jarvis, Brett Pesce, Brady Skjei, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, and a 2024 1st for Connor McDavid and Cody Ceci.

Points, GP, and cap in 2022-23: Carolina: 160 points, 327 GP, and $14,989,167 in cap Edmonton 168 points, 162 GP, and $15,750,000 in cap

Edmonton has been looking for a boost to their defense for years now. An entire second pairing that is one of the best in the NHL would be a pretty solid start to that. Carolina has been looking for a boost to their offense for years now. Connor McDavid would be a pretty decent start to that. Here, the Oilers would be giving up the best player in the world and a mid-tier defenseman for two really good defenders and two promising young players. Kotkaniemi is signed to a really nice contract for the next 7 years that would give the Oilers security at 2C without McJesus. Jarvis is an RFA this offseason, and being only 21, the Oilers will have quite a few more years of restricted free agency for the young player where they can continue to resign him to solid deals.

This trade is one I think Edmonton would be a little fonder of, but again I don’t see Carolina doing this. They’d be taking a huge hit at defense, and while their offense would get quite a bit better to make up for it, they’d still be losing two young players with the potential to hit 60-70 points as soon as this season in exchange for a player who costs 7 million more in cap than them combined.

Realistically, the I don’t see the Oilers trading McDavid at all for this reason. Even if he wasn’t the captain, the face of the team, he’s still the best hockey player on earth, and anything that Edmonton would see as fair price for him would likely only hurt the other team. Still, there is one more proposal that I think is the most likely to actually come to fruition-

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Jack Drury, Dylan Coghlan, and a 2026 4th rounder for Connor McDavid

Points, GP, and cap in 2022-23: Carolina: 11 points, 55 GP, and $925,000 in cap Edmonton 153 points, 82 GP, and $12,500,000 in cap

Now, I don’t think there’s any explaining required for why Edmonton would take this trade. Jack Drury and Dylan Coghlan are both young players with potential, while McDavid has already peaked at 26 years old. After his solid 153 point performance last year, McDavid is on pace for just 75 points this season, and if this trend continues, he’ll be scoring 3 points for the opposing team in 2025-26. Beyond Drury and Coghlan, the Canes are also offering the biggest piece in the deal- a 2026 4th rounder. People forget that Tom Brady was picked 199th overall in the 2000 NFL draft. This 4th rounder could be anything. Even Connor McDavid.

The real question is why the Canes would take this trade- The answer to that is simple; to send a message. Carolina is off to a relatively weak 9-6-0 start this season, and if they want to reverse that trend, Don Waddell will need to give the players a message. If Drury and Coghlan are at risk, everyone is. This will even motivate the newly acquired McDavid, as nothing will horrify him more than the prospect of being traded back to Edmonton.