-Gabriel Dorris-

It seems like ever since the 2021-22 second round exit at their hands, the New York Rangers have had Carolina’s number. Last season, The Hurricanes lost three of four against the NYR. The one win was a 3-2 comeback where all three goals came in the third period. This year, in the one game against the Rangers we’ve played so far, the Canes faced a painful 2-1 L.

Going back to the prior-mentioned playoff series, there has been one uniting theme in every single one of these games.

2021-22 SCP Game 1: 2-1 W

2021-22 SCP Game 2: 2-0 W

2021-22 SCP Game 3: 3-1 L

2021-22 SCP Game 4: 4-1 L

2021-22 SCP Game 5: 3-1 W

2021-22 SCP Game 6: 5-2 L

2021-22 SCP Game 7: 2-6 L

1/3/2023: 5-3 L

2/11/2023: 2-6 L

3/21/2023: 2-3 W

3/23/2023: 1-2 L

11/2/2023: 2-1 L

Through twelve games, the Canes managed more than three goals zero times. They managed exactly three in just three. In four of these games, the Canes were held to just one goal. All together, it’s 23 goals in 12 games for an average of just 1.92 a game, which would place the Canes solidly last among all teams this year.

Defensively, the Canes have given up 3.08 goals per game here, which would tie the Rangers for 18th in the NHL this season. Not terrible, but not good either. However, this doesn’t tell the full story. In these games, the Canes have given up 12 PPG on 39 opportunities, giving the Rangers a 30.7% powerplay success rate, which would keep them at 1st in the NHL this year. This is also over half of their total goals in these games. Part of this is simply due to the Rangers phenomenal powerplay in general, but the Canes are known for their generally excellent penalty kill and being unable to take advantage of it here is a huge disadvantage.

So the reason why the Canes seem to lose to the Rangers so much as of late is because of their lackluster penalty kill and inability to score in games against them. But what can be done about these problems?

First, the PK. Looking back at all twelve of the Rangers powerplay goals in these games,

1/12 was a player left alone in the slot off of a pass

1/12 was a player left alone in the slot off of a rebound

2/12 were deflected slapshots

1/12 was a slapshot that may have been deflected? Hard to tell.

3/12 were undeflected slapshots

2/12 were undeflected wristers from above the circles

1/12 was a nice snapper from below the circle- not deflected

1/12 was an empty netter. We’ll discard that one.

Of the 11 non empty-net goals here, seven were the direct result of slappers and two more came off shots from above the circles. This Rangers team is absolutely loaded with elite shooters. Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad. All of these players are experts at finding ways to score from far out, and on the penalty kill, where a team is forced to let a defenseman up high stand alone so the forward down low is covered, these players are able to take full advantage of their shot. If they don’t go in, they’re still usually hard enough to create rebound opportunities as well.

So the solution here is to not let the Rangers get their blue line shots. This means an even more aggressive penalty kill than the Canes already aggressive penalty kill. Hold onto the puck, go for a rush if you can. Make some cheeky passes. In general, hold onto the puck as much as you can. Only do a simple clear as a last resort. If the Rangers do get the puck, get in front and block shots as much as possible, and try not to screen your own goalie.

Winning faceoffs is essential to killing a Rangers powerplay. If they succeed on an O-zone faceoff, it’s to the blue line for an immediate dangerous slapper. Luckily, the Canes two penalty-killing centers, Sebastian Aho and Jordan Staal, have lit it up on the dot this year, with a 54.1 and 57.3 faceoff win percentage respectively.

But how do you score more goals against the Rangers?

According to Moneypuck, Igor Shesterkin, the Rangers starter, has been elite at stopping low danger, medium danger, and high danger shots (although his low danger stats are somewhat less impressive). This makes it seem like the best strategy to beat the Rangers isn’t necessarily to score more, but to stop them from scoring and pile on shots so a few get through. However, the problem with this strategy, the one that the Canes often use against the NYR, is that it doesn’t matter how good you are defensively if you can’t kill penalties or score goals.

So Carolina’s key to beating New York doesn’t come at even strength. The Canes can beat the Rangers by winning the special teams battle through smart, aggressive play, and by converting on easy goals when the chances come, because if Shesterkin is in good position you likely aren’t getting anything past him.

By doing this and doing it well, the Canes should be able to beat the Rangers not just tomorrow, but also in the inevitable playoff rematch.