-Gabriel Dorris-

Before this season, I wrote an article giving a grade to every signing made by the Canes in the offseason. Now that we’re a fair bit in, I’m taking another look at these deals and reevaluating those grades.

Rating Meanings:

A: A smart signing with very low risk, an AAV below market value, no real flaws, and a significant benefit to the team

B: A solid signing where the potential reward outweighs the potential risk and the AAV and term are anywhere from fair to good.

C: An okay signing that comes with an even amount of risk and reward at a value roughly equivalent to what the player would find in the open market

D: A poor signing that is either incredibly risky compared to its potential benefit, or that lacks much benefit at all. This signing pays a player more than they’re worth.

F: A terrible signing that comes with large consequences to the team and its future that the slightly positive to highly negative value in the present doesn’t even come close to making up for. A contract that pays a player an absurd amount compared to what they would get on the open market.

Ungradable: An often-two-way signing to a player with no or limited NHL experience and unknown potential.

Jordan Staal Extended for 4 years at a 2.9m AAV:

Age is hitting Staal, and it’s hitting him hard. He’s on a 26-point pace right now, which would be the second-lowest mark of his career and the lowest in terms of PPG. His defensive play is still great, but is also seemingly falling off- his minus 14 right now would be the second lowest +/- of his career if the season ended right now. His on-ice play is probably worth about 2.9m this year, maybe a little less, but if he continues to decline at this pace, it will already be an overpayment by the beginning of next year. Of course, as captain of the team, a lot of Staal’s value comes in his leadership skills, which leaves his true value somewhat unknown, but we do have Sebastian Aho waiting in the wings to take that role right now. My views on this contract are a lot more mixed on this one than they were before the year began.

Grade before the season: B

Grade now: C

Jesper Fast Extended for 2 years at a 2.4m AAV:

Looking at advanced analytics and just watching him play, Jesper Fast is still one of the best defensive forwards in the NHL. His 24-point pace this year is pretty average by his standards, and like I said in the offseason, Fast isn’t paid to score goals. It’s also worth noting again that he shows up in the playoffs very consistently (with the 2021-22 season as somewhat of an exception). My thoughts on this player haven’t really changed at all this season, and therefore my thoughts on the contract haven’t either.

Grade before the season: B+

Grade now: B+

Antti Raanta Extended for One Year at a $1.5m AAV:

I don’t think anyone expected Raanta to have the decline he did this season. Yes, he is aging, but he’s currently on pace to have the worst SV% by a goalie in a long time, as well as a drop of .054 from last season. He also played the literal worst game in NHL history (by a goalie who played the entire game, based on SV%- November 24th, 2023 against Tampa, 8 goals on 14 shots). This is after an offseason where I said “If I had to use one word to describe Raanta, it would be reliable.” and noted that “Outside of his rookie season, Raanta has never had a save percentage below .905 over a season, and his consistency is what makes him the perfect backup.” I also wrote that “If Raanta is injured, or has his first ever real down year (he is 34 now!), a 1.5m cap hit isn’t a big deal, and the contract is only for one year,” which remains true, but it doesn’t mask just how bad this season has been for him. I’m also not going to ignore the fact that the team defense was essentially non-existent to begin the year, but as the defense has recovered, Pyotr Kochetkov has too, yet Raanta’s stats have just gotten worse. He’s had a great career, both as a Cane and before he came to Raleigh, but it’s at the point where every time we play Antti we’re fighting not just the other team but ourselves, and he’s not going to get many more starts this year barring an injury. All of this means that his $1.5m cap is essentially dead weight, but due to the short-term and low AAV, I don’t think this contract treads into F territory.

Grade before the season: A-

Grade now: D-

Dmitry Orlov Signed to a Two-Year, $7.75m AAV Contract:

Orlov, like Burns last year, had a rough start to the season. He was playing with Tony DeAngelo, who has since been healthy scratched due to his struggles in his own zone, and this led to essentially every flaw in his game being magnified and thrown on a movie screen. Since then, he’s mostly played with Chatfield, and per analytics, the Orlov-Chatfield pairing has been easily the best on the Canes at preventing chances and one of the best in the NHL. Still, Orlov hasn’t produced offensively as much as he was hoped to so far, and 7.75m feels like an overpayment, but like I said before the season, the expiration of his contract is perfectly lined up with the end of Canes’ top D prospect Alexander Nikishin’s KHL contract, and considering that one or both of Pesce and Skjei will very likely leave next offseason, his minutes will increase as well. This deal feels like a splurge, but not necessarily a bad one. No rating change.

Grade before the season: C+

Grade now: C+

Frederik Andersen Extended for 2 Years at a $3.5m AAV.

Andersen has played just six games this year, with a 4-1-0 record and .894 SV%. Of those games, four have been good or great, one has been terrible, and the other is impossible to evaluate because Freddie was pulled two shots in due to illness. The reason for his lack of starts this year is a blood clotting issue likely not related to previous injuries, and because of that, I don’t completely fault the management for re-signing such an injury-prone goalie. I will however fault them if they give him back the starter role after his (seemingly soon?) return from injury instead of mostly bubble-wrapping him for the playoffs, but that’s pretty unrelated. I’m going to call this one ungradable right now because of the circumstances.

Grade before the season: B+

Grade now: Ungradable

Michael Bunting Signed to a 3-Year, $4.5m AAV Contract:

Bunting has done roughly what he was expected to when he came here. He’s been great on PP1 with fourteen powerplay points, and at even strength, he’s shuffled around between all four lines based on needs and been at least serviceable on every one of them. His fifty-eight-point pace this year is also roughly in line with his career high. He’s been overall good and I’m a little more confident in this deal than I was in the offseason.

Grade before the season: B-

Grade now: B+

Griffin Mendel Signed to a 1-Year, $775k AAV Entry Level Contract:

No real changes here from before the season. Zero-risk two-way deal, and Mendel has been solid so far in his second full AHL season.

Grade before the season: Ungradable

Grade now: Ungradable

Dylan Coghlan Extended for 1 year at a $850k AAV:

With Caleb Jones being traded around the preseason, Dylan Coghlan is eighth on the Canes’ defensive depth chart. Barring terrible injury luck or a trade, he likely won’t see any ice time this year, but it’s nice to have someone down there who has NHL experience. Hopefully, this ends up being a deal nobody remembers by July 1st this year.

Grade before the season: C-/D+

Grade now: C

Tony DeAngelo Signed to a One Year, $1.7m AAV Contract:

DeAngelo’s return to Raleigh has been pretty uneventful. He played the first few games over Chatfield in an attempt by Rod to help the powerplay, and then when Brett Pesce was injured, Chatfield ended up proving himself more deserving of Tony’s 3rd pairing spot and swiping it for himself. DeAngelo’s minus 10 is the third worst +/- on the Canes, despite him barely playing half of the teams’ games, and barring injury it’s unlikely he sees much more ice time this year, especially with the Canes’ PP now gelling very well without him. Right now it’s looking like a waste of $1.7m in cap and not much else, but his name was in trade rumors earlier this year, and if Carolina can get some value for him from a team that needs powerplay help I’d take a deal.

Grade before the season: B+

Grade now: D+

Sebastian Aho Extended for 8 Years at a $9.8m AAV:

Everything I said about this deal last offseason remains true. Sebastian Aho is producing at a career pace while killing penalties and contributing on defense just as well as ever. He’s the face of the Canes, and we have him at good value for the rest of his prime. Quoting myself from before, “This contract will look good when it kicks in, it will look great when the caps gone up and Aho is still right in his prime at 29 or 30, and it will still look good when it expires. This is a great signing for a present star and dare I say, future captain.”

Grade before the season: A

Grade now: A

Caleb Jones Signed to a One Year, $775k AAV Contract:

Caleb Jones was traded for Callahan Burke and did not play a single game for the Canes this season. From what I can tell, he’s having a decent year on the Avs. Nothing else to say about the signing of Canes legend, Caleb Jones.

Grade before the season: B

Grade now: Ungradable

Grade drops: 3/11

Consistent grades: 3/11

Grade improvements: 2/11

Currently ungradable: 3/11

Average grade before the season: B

Average grade now: B-/C+